“Try not to become a man of success rather try to become a man of value.”
–Albert Einstein

Kathy Yuan

Assistant Professor of Finance, Ph.D., MIT
University of Michigan Business School 
701 Tappan Street, D5204 
Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1234 
phone: 734-763-6039 
fax: 734-936-8715 

kyuan atsign umich.edu

Click for CV

Courses

Undergraduate Level: Fin 310 Capital Markets and Portfolio Analysis

                                  Fin 316 Derivative Securities

 

MBA Level:               Fin 580 Options and Futures in Corporate Decision Making

                                  Fin 610 Investments

                                  Fin 608 Capital Markets and Investment Strategy

                                  Fin 609 Fixed Income Securities and Markets

                                  Fin 618 Derivative Instruments

Brief Bio and Research Interests

Dr. Yuan received her Ph.D. in Economics from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Prior to obtaining her Ph.D., she worked briefly in the Emerging Markets Trading Desk at J. P. Morgan (now JPMorgan-Chase).

Her research focuses on developing new asset pricing theories with heterogeneous information and market frictions and testing their empirical implications. In the past few years, she has examined how crises spread through international financial markets and how introducing benchmark securities such as treasury bonds or stock indices improves the overall market liquidity. She is currently working on modeling higher order beliefs and strategic complementarities in the financial market, building dynamic and multi-asset REE models of asset prices with short-sale and borrowing constraints, constructing new metrics for performance evaluations, and developing new asset pricing tests based on revealed beliefs in investor portfolio holdings.

Publications and Accepted Manuscripts

Nominated for the 2005 Smith Breeden Prize.

Abstract: This study proposes a rational expectations equilibrium model of crises and contagion in an economy with information asymmetry and borrowing constraints. Consistent with empirical observations, the model finds: (1) Crises can be caused by small shocks to fundamentals; (2) market return distributions are asymmetric; and (3) correlations among asset returns tend to increase during crashes. The model also predicts: (1) Crises and contagion are likely to occur after small shocks in the intermediate price region; (2) the skewness of asset price distributions increases with information asymmetry and borrowing constraints; and (3) crises can spread through investor borrowing constraints.

Abstract: We demonstrate that benchmark securities allow heterogeneously informed investors to create trading strategies that are perfectly aligned with their signals. Investors who are informed about security-specific risks but uninformed about systematic risks can take an offsetting position in benchmark securities to eliminate exposure to adverse selection in systematic risks, while investors who are informed about systematic risks but uninformed about security-specific risks can trade systematic risks exclusively using benchmark securities. We further show that introduction of benchmark securities encourages more investors to acquire both security-specific and systematic-factor information, which leads to increased liquidity and price informativeness for all individual securities.

Abstract: We provide empirical evidence that stock market crises are spread globally through asset holdings of international investors. By separating emerging market stocks into two categories, those eligible for purchase by foreigners (accessible) and those that are not (inaccessible), we estimate and compare the degree to which accessible and inaccessible stock index returns co-move with the crisis country index returns. Our results show greater co-movement during high volatility periods, especially for accessible stock index returns, suggesting that crisis spread through the asset holdings of international investors rather than through changes in fundamentals.

Abstract: Feedback effects from asset prices to firm cash flows have been empirically documented. This finding raises a question for asset pricing: How are asset prices determined if price affects the fundamental value, which in turn affects the price? In this environment, by buying assets that others are buying, investors ensure high future cash flows for the firm and subsequent high returns for themselves. Hence, investors have an incentive to coordinate, which may generate self-fulfilling beliefs and multiple equilibria. Using insights from global games, we pin down investors' beliefs, analyze equilibrium prices, and find strong feedback leads to higher excess volatility.

Abstract: We analyze the impact of emerging-market sovereign bonds on emerging-market  corporate bonds by examining their spanning enhancement, price discovery, and issuance effects. We find the effect of spanning enhancement is positive and large; over one-fifth of the information in corporate yield spreads is traced to innovations in sovereign bonds; and most of these effects are due to discovery and spanning of systematic risks. Further, issuance of sovereign bonds, controlling for endogeneity of market-timing decisions, lowers corporate yield and bid-ask spreads. Our results indicate that sovereign securities act as benchmarks and suggest they promote a vibrant corporate bond market.

Abstract: This paper investigates the relation between lunar phases and stock market returns of 48 countries. The findings indicate that stock returns are lower on the days around a full moon than on the days around a new moon. The magnitude of the return difference is 3% to 5% per annum based on analyses of two global portfolios: one equal-weighted and the other value-weighted. The return difference is not due to changes in stock market volatility or trading volumes. The data show that the lunar effect is not explained away by announcements of macroeconomic indicators, nor is it driven by major global shocks. Moreover, the lunar effect is independent of other calendar-related anomalies such as the January effect, the day-of-week effect, the calendar month effect, and the holiday effect (including lunar holidays).

Abstract: Using panel data on industries in emerging markets, we investigate the effect of a stock market liberalization on industry growth. Consistent with the view that liberalization reduces financing constraints, we find that industries that are more externally dependent and face better growth opportunities grow faster following liberalization. However, this increase in industry growth appears to come from an expansion in the size of existing firms rather than through new firm entry, which is puzzling since new firms are typically more financially constrained. To reconcile these conflicting results we examine whether barriers to entry arising out of institutional and regulatory frictions affect the impact of liberalization on new firms. We find that liberalization leads to new firm growth at the industry level in countries that allocate capital more efficiently, and in industries that privatize government-owned firms. From a policy perspective these results suggest that a stock market liberalization will have a larger and more uniformly distributed growth impact if it is accompanied by complementary reforms that enhance competition.
 

Papers under Review or Revision

Research Note

Permanent Working Paper:

Seminar and Lunch Schedule

Decision Consortium Seminar Series